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  【講演の概要】
A Speech by Ambassador Shunji Yanai Chicago Council on Foreign Relations Chicago, Illinois April 18, 2001 That's the thing I love about Americans. You have such a great sense of humor. I mean who but Americans would think to come up with something called Hamburger University? A friend of mine tells about a Japanese couple he knows who took their children on a vacation to the United States. They had no sooner pulled out of the rental car place when the children spotted the Golden Arches and yelled, "Oh, look, they have McDonald's here just like at home." In any event, I am happy to be here in Chicago, the home of McDonald's and so many other great American corporations. And I am especially glad to be here at the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. I also want to recognize the 7,000 Japanese who live in the Chicago area. These Japanese are broadening Japan's view of the world, because when they return home they will bring new ideas and new insights with them. This is very healthy. And in a way, it is what I want to talk about this evening. I want to talk to you about how Japan is changing the ways it thinks about itself, its future and its role in the world. As a starting point, I would first like to discuss our effort to improve the Japanese economy. I know there are those who wonder what is going on in my country. Will Japan's economy, which has been in the doldrums for nearly a decade, revive? Will Japan recover from the deflation that plagues it? Can Japan's banks free themselves of the non-performing loans that have been so troublesome? One of the most difficult problems facing the Japanese economy now is that of deflation. Falling prices may sound good to the individual consumer, but at a macro level, this is a reflection of weak demand and creates real problems. This is why the Bank of Japan announced last month that it would counter deflationary pressure by putting enough money into the economy until prices stop falling. With this measure in place, it is anticipated that the overnight interest rate in Japan will stay close to zero. At the same time, the Government of Japan is trying to promote vigorous structural and regulatory reforms necessary to revitalize the Japanese economy, and adopted on April 6 a bold Emergency Economic Package to address some of the most important structural problems, particularly the issues of non-performing loans of the banks and excessive corporate debt. On the one hand, non-performing loans held by financial institutions are significantly weakening Japan's financial system as a whole. On the other hand, the existence of excessive corporate debt means that even when corporate profits improve the resulting cash flows are used to repay outstanding debt, and not positively recycled into the economy in the form of capital investment for the future. Under the Emergency Economic Package, banks are to take measures to remove non-performing loans amounting to 12.6 trillion yen from their balance sheets within the next two fiscal years. Although there is some concern in Japan that such drastic efforts could lead to more bankruptcies and higher unemployment in the short run, tackling this problem is considered to be a key for the Japanese economy to achieve dynamic growth. I can't give you the exact date when this will come to pass. But one thing is clear: Japan is migrating from one set of economic assumptions to another. One set of assumptions served us well in the postwar years. The other set will serve us well in this new century. Most Japanese accept that the old way of operating will not work in the future. The only real question is how soon we will get to where we need to be. I saw a headline about Japan in the Los Angeles Times last fall that I think summed up our economic situation pretty well. The headline said, "Economic Reform Comes at a Price."i Japan currently is paying the price. Its economic society is being remade. This is not a quick or clean process. In fact, I would argue that Japan is going through an economic reformulation greater than American industry endured in the 1980s. What makes it so difficult is that these changes are as much social as economic. With deregulation and restructuring, for example, lifelong employment in Japan is no longer the rule. Just the other day I saw where Japan Airlines is cutting its ground staff by nearly half-4,200 out of 9,000 workers will lose their jobs. That would have been a scandal five years ago. The reality of job cuts has been a blow to Japan's cohesive, consensus-oriented culture, but Japan is absorbing this change to its social fabric surprisingly well. This economic change is forcing us to accept such American concepts as individualism. The break-up of the keiretsu system is also underway. This is the system by which banks and companies are linked together through loans and stock ownership. As the Wall Street Journal recently pointed out, what is at stake here is not just money but Japan's entire business culture. It wrote, "Japanese executives tend to view companies not as assets to be bought and sold but as communities. So, a decision to sell can be gut-wrenching."ii Another change from just a few years ago--foreign ownership of Japanese companies is now not unusual. Seven of eleven Japanese car manufacturers now have foreign equity partners. General Motors even recently asked to join the Japanese Automobile Manufacturers Association.iii That shows how far we have come since the trade wars of the mid-‘90s. U.S. financial service firms have also moved into Japan in a big way. This opening up allows not only investments in but ideas. I recently was in Omaha, Nebraska, the home of Warren Buffett. I said to the audience, "Does anyone here know Warren Buffett?" Some people raised their hands, so I said, "Well, tell him to come to Japan and buy something." Another positive sign for Japan's future is that venture capital companies are popping up all over. This mentality is far different from that of the Japanese salaryman. Japan now has two NASDAQ type stock markets, which will speed the supply of capital to start-up companies. The historic city of Kyoto, which is the home of 40 universities and colleges, is also home to an estimated 300 high-tech start-ups.iv Which leads me to something else happening, something that reflects a larger, positive trend in the society and the economy. Japan is finally embracing information technology. At the opening of the Diet last year, Prime Minister Mori said that the most important pillar in the rebirth of Japan is information technology. He set the ambitious goal-that within five years-Japan will be a nation in the forefront of information and communications. The Government plans to invest $6.5 billion this fiscal year on information technology . . . 20% of it to be spent connecting offices and homes to a national fiber optic network. I believe the government will do its part, but perhaps more importantly . . . the private sector is moving very rapidly. For example, there is a flood of plans to start high-speed, broadband Internet services. The U.S. cable investor John Malone was in Tokyo a few months ago visiting a Japanese cable company of which he is partial owner. Looking at the potential of the Japanese market, he said, "I feel like I've died and gone to heaven."v Japan will be wired for the future. We will also be wireless for the future. With about 12 million Japanese subscribing to mobile Internet services delivered over cellular telephones, Japan is already far ahead of the rest of the world in using this technology.vi This spring we will be the first country to roll out the third generation of 3G cellular service, which will bring Internet access to cellular phones at speeds seven times faster than the normal PC modem.vii Many people in Japan, including myself, believe that technology itself is forcing the Japanese economy to restructure. To be honest, there are some social and economic changes we don't have a handle on yet. The population of Japan, for example, is expected to fall from 127 million people today to 100 million by 2050 and down to 67 million by the end of the century.viii How should we deal with that? I don't know. I do know that Japan has many strengths. We have well-educated people who are hard working and disciplined. We have world-class companies with strong technological capabilities and a global outlook. Statistics show that Japanese have higher incomes, more savings, longer lives and better health than many other nations do. Our health care is virtually free; our transportation system is among the best in the world. I believe Japan will find the answers. The final change I want to discuss is the one taking place in our outlook on the world. Japan is becoming much more internationally engaged as it fulfills a more global role. Japan is the world's largest contributor of foreign aid-and has been for ten years. We recently have worked with the United States on the policy toward North Korea, the Middle East Peace process; humanitarian assistance and reconstruction in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and East Timor; as well as support for Russian reform and the stabilization of Central and Latin American countries. We are learning that we cannot be isolated. We must overcome the insulation of being an island nation and look outward more. Under the U.S.-Japan Common Agenda, we've been working on global health problems, overpopulation, the environment and natural disasters. As a result of our joint efforts, polio has been virtually eradicated in the Western Pacific. On the security side, ten years ago, the recent Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation would never have been adopted. Neither would Japan have reached an agreement with the U.S. on joint defensive ballistic missile research. We would not have become part of UN peacekeeping missions in trouble spots around the globe. Ladies and gentlemen, our two countries work together in so many ways. I saw that cooperation first hand last month. I was at the White House for the meeting between Prime Minister Mori and President Bush. The meeting took on additional importance due to the economic situation surrounding our two countries right now. The Prime Minister and the President discussed our economies. They discussed regional problems such as North Korea and the reform of the UN Security Council. They also expressed their conviction that the U.S.-Japan relationship is rooted in friendship, mutual trust and shared democratic values. Yes, sometimes there are strains, such as the recent tragedy involving the U.S. submarine and the Japanese training vessel. But our friendship and our cooperation endure. In closing, ladies and gentlemen, someone once said that a foreigner is a friend not yet met. I hope this evening that I have gone from being a foreigner to being a friend. I know I feel that way about all of you. I thank you for inviting me to speak, and I thank you for your warm hospitality. Thank you all. i "Economic Reform Comes at a Price," Mark Magnier, Los Angeles Times, 9/22/01 ii "Frayed by Recession, Japan's Corporate Ties Are Coming Unraveled," Wall Street Journal, 3/2/01 iii "GM Asks To Be Japan Auto Group's First Foreign Member," Desmond Hutton, Detroit Free Press, 1/30/01 iv "Japanese City Nurtures Start-Ups," Julie Schmit, USA Today, 4/19/00 v "Japan Goes All Out to Catch U.S. in High-Speed Internet Service," Robert Guth, Wall Street Journal, 11/27/00 vi "Japanese Aim to Outspeed U.S. Internet," Robert Guth, Wall Street Journal, 8/31/00 vii ibid. viii "In Stagnant Japan, Economic and Social Ills Match," Howard French, New York Times, 2/6/01 |